2017年1月25日 星期三

自動車出事,罰誰

自動車出事,罰誰
20170125
吳景欽

美國國家交通安全管理局(NHTSA),對去年發生於佛羅里達州的特斯拉自動駕駛事故,做出初步調查認為,原因並非在系統出問題,而是駕駛者未能專注所致。惟若所謂自動車或無人駕駛車,仍須駕駛者時時注意,果真能叫自動駕駛嗎?更值關注的是,面對此等科技產物與趨勢,法制又該如何調整?

關於自動車最須被面對的課題,即是發生事故時法律責任的歸屬。傳統上,對交通安全的規範乃是以駕駛人的過失為歸責核心。故於車禍時,就刑事責任來說,基於罪止一身原則,就只能以肇事者為處罰對象。而就民事責任來說,除駕駛人外,雖可能擴及於法律先推定有過失的雇用人,甚至是商品製造人,但若其能舉證自己無過失,仍可免除賠償責任。至於汽車所有人,除非其同時為雇主或製造者,否則,依現行法制,車輛提供者並無須擔負賠償責任。

而目前汽車現況,雖已有定速、導航、自動煞車與停車等等設計,但因仍以人力操控為主導,尚不能納入自動駕駛的領域。故所謂自動車,應是指加速、減速、操控全由電腦運作,至於駕駛人僅能在緊急狀態下介入,甚或根本不讓人力有操縱可能之無人車。

所以於自動車仍有駕駛人在其內的情況,由於人力可隨時操控,故當事故發生時,依然可適用現有法制為處理。只是於此時,人為操控已變成是輔助,就刑事究責,固然仍應以駕駛人為歸責重心,但就民事責任來說,是否該同時提高商品製造者的注意義務與責任,即是法規範必須重新思考之處。

比較麻煩者,還是無人駕駛的自動車。由於此種型態,已經脫離自然人的掌控,則當事故發生時,刑罰對象到底要歸屬於車輛製造者、所有人,抑或是程式設計者,就會產生疑問,也勢必會對所謂行為責任原則,造成極大的衝擊。至於民事部分,目前以駕駛人為歸責中心的體系,亦將無用武之地,致須重行建立以製造者為究責核心且採無過失責任的規範結構。至於車輛提供者、程式設計者,是否亦該納入連帶賠償的範圍,更得有不同以往的思維與立法模式。

雖然對自動車的規範,欲設計一套完整的法制,實非一蹴可幾,這對自動車發展與研究相對落後的我國而言,更是如此。不過至少於現階段,主管部門得趕緊制訂實驗車上路的規範與準則,此可能包括自動車上路前的檢測標準、是否要有駕駛人在其內及需要何種資格、可行走的路段與時間,甚至是責任險的最低額等等。畢竟,法律的修改與規範完整性,雖肯定無法趕得上社會的進步與進化,卻也不能成為科技發展的絆腳石。(作者為真理大學法律系副教授兼系所主任)


(中國時報)

2017年1月14日 星期六

A Big Test for Big Batteries

A Big Test for Big Batteries
By DIANE CARDWELL and CLIFFORD KRAUSS
JAN. 14, 2017 ESCONDIDO, Calif. —

In Southern California in the fall of 2015, a giant natural gas leak not only caused one of the worst environmental disasters in the nation’s history, it also knocked out a critical fuel source for regional power plants. Energy regulators needed a quick fix. But rather than sticking with gas, they turned to a technology more closely associated with flashlights: batteries. They freed up the utilities to start installing batteries — and lots of them.

It is a solution that’s audacious and risky. The idea is that the batteries can store electricity during daylight hours (when the state’s many solar panels are flooding the grid with power), then release it as demand peaks (early evening, when people get home). In effect, the rechargeable batteries are like an on-demand power plant, and, in theory, able to replace an actual plant. Utilities have been studying batteries nationwide. But none have moved ahead with the gusto of those in Southern California.

This idea has far­-reaching potential. But the challenge of storing electricity has vexed engineers, researchers, policy makers and entrepreneurs for centuries. Even as countless technologies have raced ahead, batteries haven’t yet fulfilled their promise. And the most powerful new designs come with their own risks, such as fire or explosion if poorly made or maintained. It’s the same problem that forced Samsung to recall 2.5 million Galaxy Note 7 smartphones in September because of fire risk.

After racing for months, engineers here in California have brought three energy-storage sites close to completion to begin serving the Southern California electric grid within the next month. They are made up of thousands of oversize versions of the lithium­-ion batteries now widely used in smartphones, laptop computers and other digital devices. One of the installations, at a San Diego Gas & Electric operations center surrounded by industrial parks in Escondido, Calif., 30 miles north of San Diego, will be the largest of its kind in the world, developers say. It represents the most crucial test yet of an energy-­storage technology that many experts see as fundamental to a clean­-energy future.

Here, about 130 miles southeast of Aliso Canyon, the site of the immense gas leak in 2015 — the global­-warming equivalent of operating about 1.7 million cars over the course of a year — 19,000 battery modules the size of a kitchen drawer are being wired together in racks. They will operate out of two dozen beige, 640­ square­-foot trailers. Made by Samsung, the batteries are meant to store enough energy to serve as a backup in cases of fuel shortages. They are also designed to absorb low­-cost energy, particularly solar power, during the day and feed it back to the grid after dusk. They in effect can fill in for the decades-­old gas­-fired plants that might lack the fuel to fully operate because of the disastrous leak.

“California is giving batteries the opportunity to show what they can do,” said Andrés Gluski, chief executive of AES, which is installing the storage systems. AES is installing a smaller array for the electric utility in El Cajon, a suburb east of San Diego. And separately Tesla, the company perhaps better known for its electric cars, is building an array for a different utility on the grid, Southern California Edison, near Chino, Calif.

The stakes are high for both energy storage companies. If their projects struggle or fail, it could jeopardize not only the stability of Southern California’s grid but also interest in the technology over all. After a smaller, but pioneering battery project at a wind farm on Oahu in Hawaii went up in flames in 2012, investment in battery storage all but dried up for a few years. That installation, which used 12,000 lead­-acid batteries to help even out fluctuations in the power flow, caught fire three times in its first 18 months of operation. The storage developer, Xtreme, eventually went bankrupt.

The wind farm turned to a different technology to smooth its output. Keeping a close eye on the Southern California battery efforts is Susan Kennedy, who helped shepherd California’s energy policy for more than a decade as a state utility regulator and high-­level operative for two governors — Gray Davis, a Democrat, and Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican. She now runs an energy storage start­up, one not involved in the battery­-building response to the Aliso Canyon gas leak.

“The moment one fails,” Ms. Kennedy said of the big bet on batteries, “they won’t build any more.” As soon as AES’s chief executive, Mr. Gluski, learned last June that San Diego Gas & Electric had awarded AES the big battery contract, he leapt out of his chair and interrupted a meeting in his board room at the company’s headquarters in Alexandria, Va. As employees watched in astonishment, he barreled down two flights of stairs, grabbed a mallet and, with a ceremonial flourish, banged a gong that one of his executives kept on hand for big news.

Mr. Gluski had not had much occasion to celebrate since he had taken the AES reins five years earlier. The company was struggling with debt and trying to coax profits from far-­flung fossil-­fuel projects around the developing world that are buffeted by instability in politics, currency and commodity prices.

His first steps included an austerity program in which he gave up many of his own executive perks: No more country­-club membership. No more corporate Audi A8, with driver. But the more far-­reaching part of his plan would be AES’s battery division, which was then fledgling. The unit had roots in two midlevel executives who had been speculating about a Jetsons-­like future over beers.

Those two men, John Zahurancik, a science fiction fan, and Chris Shelton, a former physics teacher, had started talking about batteries a decade ago, before electric cars became fashionable or even feasible.

In 2006, Mr. Shelton had come across a professor’s paper that predicted a future dominated by electric cars that, when parked, could be connected to the power grid so their batteries could act as storage devices to help balance electricity demand.

He and Mr. Zahurancik bounced the idea off some AES colleagues, who said it was at least theoretically feasible. So the two continued their bull sessions but decided that stationary battery arrays may make more sense than relying on electric cars. At the time, lithium-­based batteries, the standard in consumer products, were widely in use in the transportation and power tool industries, but no one had paired them with the technology necessary to serve the power grid.

Earlier grid­-scale experiments with lead­-acid and other types of batteries worked only for a year or two before conking out. A different technology, “flow batteries,” which use chemicals dissolved in liquids in tanks, were considered even more experimental. But lithium packs more energy per weight than other metals, offering the promise of greater energy density and longevity. The trick would be to figure out how to harness all that power, which creates heat, while avoiding the fires such batteries have caused in any number of vehicles and gadgets, including Teslas, HP computers, hover-boards and, most recently, Samsung Galaxy Note 7s.

The two hit upon a design and persuaded executives to begin a pilot project in 2008. That eventually led to the first commercial lithium-­ion battery on a grid. Mr. Zahurancik, who owns the gong, is now president of AES Energy Storage. Mr. Shelton is now the company’s vice president and chief technology officer. AES does not actually make its batteries but buys them, along with other equipment, from manufacturers like Samsung, LG Chem and Panasonic. It designs and assembles the arrays, stacking the boxy batteries into racks inside locker-­like containers.

In Escondido, where local radio stations still carry public service announcements about the natural­-gas shortage, the AES battery packs are being installed at a critical spot on the regional electrical grid: the place where the giant wires from power plants and wind and solar arrays connect to the network of local wires. The batteries are intended to relieve the pressure on the system. Mainly, they will serve as a kind of sponge, soaking up excess or low-­cost solar energy during the day and then squeezing it back into the grid in the evening, when demand surges as the sun sets.

There is enough capacity in the containers full of batteries to power about 20,000 homes for four hours. The idea is that they help the utility lessen its dependence on the type of natural gas plants known as “peakers,” which can turn on and off quickly to meet sudden peaks of demand but are generally used only for short periods and at great expense. And peakers, by burning fossil fuel, are also at odds with California’s green-­energy goals. The project is also being watched closely by advocates for renewable energy. The reason: If utility-­scale battery installations work as designed, they would help wind or solar generators to act more like conventional power plants by working steadily even when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing.

“Energy storage is really the tool to do renewables integration for a utility infrastructure company like us,” said Josh Gerber, advanced technology integration manager of SDG&E, as workers smoothed the thigh­-high concrete pads that support the containers at the Escondido site. “Without it, you have more risk that the variability of renewables is going to cause reliability problems.”

Under the contract, AES is responsible for making sure the batteries perform for 10 years, after which SDG&E will take over. One potential downside is that if the batteries are fully charged and discharged each day, they could degrade more quickly. The executives involved expressed confidence in the design and reliability, despite Samsung’s recent smartphone problems.

Not only are these batteries a different configuration than the smartphone units, executives said, but the larger footprint allows for the inclusion of sophisticated monitoring as well as industrial safety and cooling and ventilation equipment. The project, along with the smaller array AES has installed in El Cajon, could provide the proof­-of­-concept leap Mr. Gluski has been striving for.

AES has a deal for an even bigger, $1 billion project in Long Beach with Southern California Edison that is not part of the Aliso Canyon remediation effort; it is projected to go online by the end of 2020. The electric company plans to use batteries to replace part of its aging gas plant along the San Gabriel River.

Long term, Mr. Gluski plans to shift the company’s power­-generation portfolio — still heavily based on coal and natural gas — toward more renewable energy. He sees the storage systems as vital components in turning solar and wind energy into a dominant power source in the parts of Latin America, Asia and Africa where AES is active.

Whatever progress it has made, AES still has its share of problems, with $20 billion in debt and a stock price less than one-­fifth the value that it had at the start of the century. It faces wary, if not outright skeptical, treatment by Wall Street utility analysts and energy experts, who say the technology AES is peddling on such a large scale in California remains untested and financially risky.

“The problem comes if there is a hiccup with the battery storage business in California,” said Charles Fishman, a utilities analyst at Morningstar. “You don’t have the deep-­pocket parent that can push money to it and keep it out of trouble.” Despite all the battery activity in California, executives around the utility industry remain cautious.

“The reason we don’t have widespread batteries on our system is because it is not cost-­effective for us,” said Alice Jackson, vice president for strategic revenue initiatives at Xcel, a giant electricity and gas utility serving eight Western and Midwestern states. Xcel has been testing batteries about as long as AES, but almost exclusively in small pilots. “It’s fair to say we don’t have long­-range experience with this technology to say that it is perfect, or a nirvana,” Ms. Jackson said. “It’s something we’ll observe as California goes through its experience.”

California’s latest experiment with batteries is but the latest bout in the state’s long struggle to match its energy needs with its environmental sensibilities. In the early 2000s, after market deregulation and Enron’s notorious manipulation of gas supplies led to blackouts and financial instability among the power companies, state officials decided to lessen reliance on natural gas by encouraging the development of wind and solar. Under Mr. Schwarzenegger, who was governor until 2011, officials pushed through a raft of overlapping regulations that created a boom in renewables, especially solar. But that upended the traditional patterns of supply and demand, making the overall energy system technically and economically difficult to manage.

Batteries were the logical solution. But the technology wasn’t fully developed and was still too expensive. In order for companies to make the necessary investments, they needed a signal that there would be a big enough market for their products. So in 2010, the state approved one of the first energy-­storage mandates, ultimately requiring utilities to install some form of storage equipment in their territories. That set off a flurry of new investment and innovation and, after the sudden closure of the San Onofre nuclear plant on the coast in northwest San Diego County in 2012 when a steam generator tube sprung a leak, new contracts for battery installations.

But the Aliso Canyon accident, which began on Oct. 23, 2015, when the Southern California Gas Company first detected the leak, put that process on fast-forward. The noxious­-smelling gas and intermittent oily mist that spewed forth over almost four months traveled into the surrounding neighborhoods on the strong winds that sweep down from the Santa Susana Mountains. At the same time, it forced the battery strategy into its most high-­profile test yet. Now it’s show-time, and the pressure to succeed is high all around.

For AES, it could signify an important step for a long­-troubled conventional­-energy relic that is seeking to revitalize itself as a powerhouse in battery storage and other advanced technologies. For clean­-energy advocates — including residents of the Porter Ranch section of Los Angeles, so picture­-perfect that Steven Spielberg chose it as the setting for the 1982 movie “E.T.,” but where many still complain of the rashes, headaches and other debilitating symptoms that drove thousands from their homes during the leak — it could be a powerful weapon in the fight to keep the gas depot closed.

But the pressure may be highest for the Southern California utilities, their reputations still blackened by waves of forced electricity cuts that followed the Enron debacle. No one wants to contemplate a repeat of that chapter, when blackouts affected factories and even some hospitals. “When the power goes out, people die,” said Ms. Kennedy, the former state official. “Failure is not an option here on any level.”


2017年1月9日 星期一

三十年後,線上經濟體當道

三十年後,線上經濟體當道
20170110
林建甫

17日我應邀到北京參加第二屆新經濟智庫大會。該會選在798藝術區舉行,以「遠見2046」為主題,聚焦「線上經濟、未來科技」,討論新技術、新經濟和新治理三大問題。這三大問題彼此互相連結,因為新技術帶來新經濟,新經濟呼喚新治理模式。參加者是來自中外的120多家智庫的800多位負責人。大家齊聚一堂,是一場知識界未來學的饗宴。

798藝術區位於北京朝陽區酒仙橋街道大山子地區。原為大陸國營事業798廠等電子工業的老廠區所在地。它們是50年代初由蘇聯援建、東德負責設計建造的重點工業項目,幾十年來經歷了無數的風雨滄桑。後來藝術家和文化機構進駐,經過改造逐漸發展成為畫廊、藝術中心、餐飲酒吧等各種空間的聚合,成為了北京都市文化的新地標。大會選在大煤氣儲槽圓球中開會,有古老的房子,新式的音響投影設備。外面零度以下小雪紛飛,裡面大夥熱烈討論,別有風味。

其實從2008年金融危機以後,整個全球經濟都進入到低迷、遲疑當中,IMF總裁拉加德因此認為這是「新平庸經濟」,大家對如何走出、突破困境都看不清楚。然而阿里巴巴集團認為未來30年是人類最關鍵的30年。大會主題的設計就是跳脫對當今的糾結,直接討論30年後的2046,再來反思當下。其董事局主席馬雲曾多次表示:「新技術將融合到傳統行業的方方面面,引領人類社會天翻地覆的變化。」「未來30年一定不會只是互聯網公司的天下,未來30年是『用好互聯網技術』的公司或年輕人的天下。」

2046將是什麼樣子?估計那就是「奇點」(singularity)的降臨。「奇點」本是天體物理學術語,是指「時空中的一個普通物理規則不適用的點」。在美國未來學家雷·庫魯韋爾(Ray Kuraweil)的理論中,「奇點」是指人工智慧超過人類智慧,機器也可敏捷地思考、行動和溝通,人類就會與機器相互融合。屆時互聯網、物聯網、區塊鏈、基因技術、認知模式識別、雲計算、大數據等技術都成熟,改變無處不在。藉此遠見,洞察未來,才能判斷現在。

卡內基美隆大學賈斯汀·卡塞爾(Justine Cassel)教授,她也是世界經濟論壇人工智慧委員會主席,在大會報告「人機互動的未來」。她認為下一代人機溝通介面具有兩個屬性:通過對話和肢體語言進行自然互動;採用人類的社交模式而非驅動機器的任務模式。未來最大的突破會是,語言的使用讓介面變得更加直觀、自然。這主要依靠深度學習(deep learning)演算法和自然語言來實現。卡塞爾也認為,未來的人機互動會以人為主,如此一來就可以將語言、行為、表情各種表現納入設計。機器從真實的人群中得到諮詢建議並不斷反覆運算,直到互動設計的實用化、理想化來「讓人信服」。

對於技術如何發展?商業如何演化?治理需如何創新?新的需求環環相扣,就需要智庫思想者來領航,來解決問題。因此大會隆重舉行了中國大陸「遠見智庫論『潭』」成立儀式,由清華大學公共管理學院、中國社會科學院經濟所、北京大學光華管理學院、國研中心資環所、華為戰略部、京東方產業研究中心、資訊社會50人論壇、華夏基石諮詢公司、競爭力智庫、阿里研究院等10家共同發起。將這一「論潭」打造成匯聚原創性技術思想、開創性商業模式,以及將創意設想轉化為創新價值的正能量中心與國際化平台。

對於新的技術引發新的商業革命,也將孕育新的經濟形態。檢討第一次工業革命,以蒸汽機為代表,使用機器,產生了「工場」;第二次工業革命,以電力為代表,使用生產線,產生了「工廠」;而第三次工業革命,以電腦、互聯網為標誌,產生了「公司」。未來新的經濟生態是什麼?阿里研究院在大會發布《線上經濟體發展報告》,首次提出「線上經濟體」概念,線上的所有數據變成最具共享性的生產資料,計算變成隨時隨地的公共服務,互聯網變成最具滲透力的基礎設施。數據改變商業本質,計算重塑經濟活動。「線上經濟體」是經濟生態組織演化的高級形態,是未來全球經濟的主要生態體系。(作者為台灣經濟研究院院長、台灣大學經濟系教授)


(中國時報)

2016年12月7日 星期三

The Robot Revolution Will Be the Quietest One

The Robot Revolution Will Be the Quietest One
By LIU CIXIN DEC. 7, 2016
This is an article from Turning Points, a magazine that explores what critical moments from this year might mean for the year ahead.

Turning Point: Though the first fatal crash involving an autonomous car took place in July 2016, self­-driving vehicles have been adopted around the world. In 2016, self-driving cars made inroads in several countries, many of which rewrote their laws to accommodate the new technology. As a science­-fiction writer, it’s my duty to warn the human race that the robot revolution has begun — even if no one has noticed yet.

When a few autonomous test cars appeared on the roads over the last few years, we didn’t think of them as robots because they didn’t have the humanoid shape that science­-fiction movies taught us to expect. In 2016, they were adopted widely: as buses in the United Arab Emirates and the Netherlands, taxis in Singapore and private cars in the United States and China. There was a fatal accident in Florida involving an autonomous car, which caused some concerns, but this did not significantly affect our embrace of this technology. Instead of arming ourselves against this alien presence, as some of my fellow science-­fiction writers have fearfully suggested, we gawked as the vehicles pulled up to the curb.

The driverless vehicles, some of which had no steering wheels or gas pedals, merged into traffic and stopped at stop signs, smoothly taking us to our destinations. We lounged in comfort, occasionally taking selfies.

Machine learning has been an important tool for autonomous car companies as they develop the systems that pilot their vehicles. Instead of rigidly following programming as an app on your phone does, an A.I. system can try to learn to do a task itself, using techniques borrowed from human learning, like pattern recognition and trial and error, and may use hardware modeled on the architecture of a human brain.

Currently, the responsibilities of artificial intelligence are mostly limited to tasks like translating texts, helping with medical diagnoses and writing simple articles for media companies. But we can expect to see unimaginable progress in this field in future — and the widespread use of the autonomous car is going to accelerate that process as automobile and technology companies invest ever more resources in its development.

Let’s try to envision that future. As during every other technological revolution, the robots will first transform our economy. People who drive for a living will lose their jobs — around 3 million in the United States alone. Ecommerce may experience further booms because of automation, and car ownership is likely to become nearly obsolete as more targeted car sharing and public transportation systems are developed. Eventually, the robot cars could be integrated with other transportation systems. Say that you live in New York City and want to go to China’s Henan Province: You will enter the address into an app, a car will take you to your plane at the airport, and after you land, another will take you directly to your destination.

Robots will begin to creep into other areas of our lives — serving as busboys or waiters, for example — as our investments in robotic transport improve their prowess in areas such as environmental detection and modeling, hyper­-complex problem solving and fuzzy-­logic applications. With every advance, the use of A.I.­ powered robots will expand into other fields: health care, policing, national defense and education. There will be scandals when things go wrong and backlash movements from the new Luddites. But I don’t think we’ll protest very much. The A.I. systems that drive our cars will teach us to trust machine intelligence over the human variety — car accidents will become very rare, for example — and when given an opportunity to delegate a job to a robot, we will placidly do so without giving it much thought

In all previous technological revolutions, people who lost their jobs mostly moved to new ones, but that will be less likely when the robots take over. A.I. that can learn from experience will replace many accountants, lawyers, bankers, insurance adjusters, doctors, scientific researchers and some creative professionals. Intelligence and advanced training will no longer mean job stability. Gradually the A.I. era will transform the essence of human culture. When we’re no longer more intelligent than our machines, when they can easily outthink and outperform us, making the sort of intuitive leaps in research and other areas that we currently associate with genius, a sort of learned helplessness is likely to set in for us, and the idea of work itself may cease to hold meaning.

As A.I. takes over, the remaining jobs may dwindle to a fraction of what they were, employing perhaps 10 percent or even less of the total population. These may be highly creative or complex jobs that robots can’t do, such as senior management, directing scientific research or nursing and child care.

In the dystopian scenario, as jobless numbers rise across the globe, our societies sink into prolonged turmoil. The world could be engulfed by endless conflicts between those who control the A.I. and the rest of us. The technocratic 10 percent could end up living in a gated community with armed robot guards.

There is a second, utopian scenario, where we’ve anticipated these changes and come up with solutions beforehand. Those in political power have planned a smoother, gentler transition, perhaps using A.I. to help them anticipate and modulate the strife. At the end of it, almost all of us live on social welfare. How we will spend our time is hard to predict.

“He who does not work, neither shall he eat” has been the cornerstone of civilizations through the ages, but that will have vanished. History shows that those who haven’t had to work — aristocrats, say — have often spent their time entertaining and developing their artistic and sporting talents while scrupulously observing elaborate rituals of dress and manners. In this future, creativity is highly valued. We sport ever more fantastic makeup, hairstyles and clothing. The labor of past ages seems barbaric.

But the aristocrats ruled nations; in the A.I. era, machines are doing all the thinking. Because, over the decades, we’ve gradually given up our autonomy, step by step, allowing ourselves to be transformed into A.I.’s docile, fabulously pampered pets. As A.I. whisks us from place to place — visits to family members, art galleries and musical events — we will look out the windows, as unaware of its plans for us as a poodle on its way to the groomer’s.


2016年9月25日 星期日

Why Donald Trump Should Not Be President

Why Donald Trump Should Not Be President 
Donald Trump is a man who dwells in bigotry, bluster and false promises.

By THE EDITORIAL BOARD SEPT. 25, 2016

When Donald Trump began his improbable run for president 15 months ago, he offered his wealth and television celebrity as credentials, then slyly added a twist of fearmongering about Mexican “rapists” flooding across the Southern border.

From that moment of combustion, it became clear that Mr. Trump’s views were matters of dangerous impulse and cynical pandering rather than thoughtful politics. Yet he has attracted throngs of Americans who ascribe higher purpose to him than he has demonstrated in a freewheeling campaign marked by bursts of false and outrageous allegations, personal insults, xenophobic nationalism, unapologetic sexism and positions that shift according to his audience and his whims.

Now here stands Mr. Trump, feisty from his runaway Republican primary victories and ready for the first presidential debate, scheduled for Monday night, with Hillary Clinton. It is time for others who are still undecided, and perhaps hoping for some dramatic change in our politics and governance, to take a hard look and see Mr. Trump for who he is.

They have an obligation to scrutinize his supposed virtues as a refreshing counter-politician. Otherwise, they could face the consequences of handing the White House to a man far more consumed with himself than with the nation’s well­being. Here’s how Mr. Trump is selling himself and why he can’t be believed.

A financial wizard who can bring executive magic to government? Despite his towering properties, Mr. Trump has a record rife with bankruptcies and sketchy ventures like Trump University, which authorities are investigating after numerous complaints of fraud. His name has been chiseled off his failed casinos in Atlantic City. Mr. Trump’s brazen refusal to disclose his tax returns — as Mrs. Clinton and other nominees for decades have done — should sharpen voter wariness of his business and charitable operations. Disclosure would undoubtedly raise numerous red flags; the public record already indicates that in at least some years he made full use of available loopholes and paid no taxes.

Mr. Trump has been opaque about his questionable global investments in Russia and elsewhere, which could present conflicts of interest as president, particularly if his business interests are left in the hands of his children, as he intends. Investigations have found self­-dealing. He notably tapped $258,000 in donors’ money from his charitable foundation to settle lawsuits involving his for-profit businesses, according to The Washington Post.

A straight talker who tells it like it is? Mr. Trump, who has no experience in national security, declares that he has a plan to soundly defeat the Islamic State militants in Syria, but won’t reveal it, bobbing and weaving about whether he would commit ground troops. Voters cannot judge whether he has any idea what he’s talking about without an outline of his plan, yet Mr. Trump ludicrously insists he must not tip off the enemy.

Another of his cornerstone proposals — his campaign pledge of a “total and complete shutdown” of Muslim newcomers plus the deportation of 11 million undocumented immigrants across a border wall paid for by Mexico — has been subjected to endless qualifications as he zigs and zags in pursuit of middle-ground voters. Whatever his gyrations, Mr. Trump always does make clear where his heart lies — with the anti­-immigrant, nativist and racist signals that he scurrilously employed to build his base.

He used the shameful “birther” campaign against President Obama’s legitimacy as a wedge for his candidacy. But then he opportunistically denied his own record, trolling for undecided voters by conceding that Mr. Obama was a born American. In the process he tried to smear Mrs. Clinton as the instigator of the birther canard and then fled reporters’ questions. Since his campaign began, NBC News has tabulated that Mr. Trump has made 117 distinct policy shifts on 20 major issues, including three contradictory views on abortion in one eight­-hour stretch. As reporters try to pin down his contradictions, Mr. Trump has mocked them at his rallies. He said he would “loosen” libel laws to make it easier to sue news organizations that displease him.

An expert negotiator who can fix government and overpower other world leaders? His plan for cutting the national debt was far from a confidence builder: He said he might try to persuade creditors to accept less than the government owed. This fanciful notion, imported from Mr. Trump’s debt-­steeped real estate world, would undermine faith in the government and the stability of global financial markets.

His tax­-cut plan has been no less alarming. It was initially estimated to cost $10 trillion in tax revenue, then, after revisions, maybe $3 trillion, by one adviser’s estimate. There is no credible indication of how this would be paid for — only assurances that those in the upper brackets will be favored.

If Mr. Trump were to become president, his open doubts about the value of NATO would present a major diplomatic and security challenge, as would his repeated denunciations of trade deals and relations with China. Mr. Trump promises to renegotiate the Iran nuclear control agreement, as if it were an air-rights deal on Broadway.

Numerous experts on national defense and international affairs have recoiled at the thought of his commanding the nuclear arsenal. Former Secretary of State Colin Powell privately called Mr. Trump “an international pariah.” Mr. Trump has repeatedly denounced global warming as a “hoax,” although a golf course he owns in Ireland is citing global warming in seeking to build a protective wall against a rising sea.

In expressing admiration for the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, Mr. Trump implies acceptance of Mr. Putin’s dictatorial abuse of critics and dissenters, some of whom have turned up murdered, and Mr. Putin’s vicious crackdown on the press. Even worse was Mr. Trump’s urging Russia to meddle in the presidential campaign by hacking the email of former Secretary of State Clinton. Voters should consider what sort of deals Mr. Putin might obtain if Mr. Trump, his admirer, wins the White House.

A change agent for the nation and the world? There can be little doubt of that. But voters should be asking themselves if Mr. Trump will deliver the kind of change they want. Starting a series of trade wars is a recipe for recession, not for new American jobs. Blowing a hole in the deficit by cutting taxes for the wealthy will not secure Americans’ financial future, and alienating our allies won’t protect our security.

Mr. Trump has also said he will get rid of the new national health insurance system that millions now depend on, without saying how he would replace it. The list goes on: He would scuttle the financial reforms and consumer protections born of the Great Recession. He would upend the Obama administration’s progress on the environment, vowing to “cancel the Paris climate agreement” on global warming. He would return to the use of waterboarding, a torture method, in violation of international treaty law. He has blithely called for reconsideration of Japan’s commitment not to develop nuclear weapons.

He favors a national campaign of “stop and frisk” policing, which has been ruled unconstitutional. He has blessed the National Rifle Association’s ambition to arm citizens to engage in what he imagines would be defensive “shootouts” with gunmen.

 He has so coarsened our politics that he remains a contender for the presidency despite musing about his opponent as a gunshot target. Voters should also consider Mr. Trump’s silence about areas of national life that are crying out for constructive change: How would he change our schools for the better? How would he lift more Americans out of poverty? How would his condescending appeal to black voters — a cynical signal to white moderates concerned about his racist supporters — translate into credible White House initiatives to promote racial progress? How would his call to monitor and even close some mosques affect the nation’s life and global reputation? Would his Supreme Court nominees be zealous, self­-certain extensions of himself? In all these areas, Mrs. Clinton has offered constructive proposals. He has offered bluster, or nothing.

The most specific domestic policy he has put forward, on tax breaks for child care, would tilt toward the wealthy. Voters attracted by the force of the Trump personality should pause and take note of the precise qualities he exudes as an audaciously different politician: bluster, savage mockery of those who challenge him, degrading comments about women, mendacity, crude generalizations about nations and religions. Our presidents are role models for generations of our children. Is this the example we want for them?


2016年9月24日 星期六

HILLARY CLINTON FOR PRESIDENT

HILLARY CLINTON FOR PRESIDENT

By THE EDITORIAL BOARD SEPT. 24, 2016

In any normal election year, we’d compare the two presidential candidates side by side on the issues. But this is not a normal election year. A comparison like that would be an empty exercise in a race where one candidate — our choice, Hillary Clinton — has a record of service and a raft of pragmatic ideas, and the other, Donald Trump, discloses nothing concrete about himself or his plans while promising the moon and offering the stars on layaway. (We will explain in a subsequent editorial why we believe Mr. Trump to be the worst nominee put forward by a major party in modern American history.)

But this endorsement would also be an empty exercise if it merely affirmed the choice of Clinton supporters. We’re aiming instead to persuade those of you who are hesitating to vote for Mrs. Clinton — because you are reluctant to vote for a Democrat, or for another Clinton, or for a candidate who might appear, on the surface, not to offer change from an establishment that seems indifferent and a political system that seems broken.

Running down the other guy won’t suffice to make that argument. The best case for Hillary Clinton cannot be, and is not, that she isn’t Donald Trump. The best case is, instead, about the challenges this country faces, and Mrs. Clinton’s capacity to rise to them.

The next president will take office with bigoted, tribalist movements and their leaders on the march. In the Middle East and across Asia, in Russia and Eastern Europe, even in Britain and the United States, war, terrorism and the pressures of globalization are eroding democratic values, fraying alliances and challenging the ideals of tolerance and charity.

The 2016 campaign has brought to the surface the despair and rage of poor and middle­class Americans who say their government has done little to ease the burdens that recession, technological change, foreign competition and war have heaped on their families.

Over 40 years in public life, Hillary Clinton has studied these forces and weighed responses to these problems. Our endorsement is rooted in respect for her intellect, experience, toughness and courage over a career of almost continuous public service, often as the first or only woman in the arena. Mrs. Clinton’s work has been defined more by incremental successes than by moments of transformational change. As a candidate, she has struggled to step back from a pointillist collection of policy proposals to reveal the full pattern of her record. That is a weakness of her campaign, and a perplexing one, for the pattern is clear. It shows a determined leader intent on creating opportunity for struggling Americans at a time of economic upheaval and on ensuring that the United States remains a force for good in an often brutal world.

Similarly, Mrs. Clinton’s occasional missteps, combined with attacks on her trustworthiness, have distorted perceptions of her character. She is one of the most tenacious politicians of her generation, whose willingness to study and correct course is rare in an age of unyielding partisanship.

As first lady, she rebounded from professional setbacks and personal trials with astounding resilience. Over eight years in the Senate and four as secretary of state, she built a reputation for grit and bipartisan collaboration. She displayed a command of policy and diplomatic nuance and an ability to listen to constituents and colleagues that are all too exceptional in Washington.

Mrs. Clinton’s record of service to children, women and families has spanned her adult life. One of her boldest acts as first lady was her 1995 speech in Beijing declaring that women’s rights are human rights. After a failed attempt to overhaul the nation’s health care system, she threw her support behind legislation to establish the Children’s Health Insurance Program, which now covers more than eight million lower-­income young people. This year, she rallied mothers of gun-­violence victims to join her in demanding comprehensive background checks for gun buyers and tighter reins on gun sales.

After opposing driver’s licenses for undocumented immigrants during the 2008 campaign, she now vows to push for comprehensive immigration legislation as president and to use executive power to protect law-­abiding undocumented people from deportation and cruel detention.

Some may dismiss her shift as opportunistic, but we credit her for arriving at the right position. Mrs. Clinton and her team have produced detailed proposals on crime, policing and race relations, debt-­free college and small-­business incentives, climate change and affordable broadband. Most of these proposals would benefit from further elaboration on how to pay for them, beyond taxing the wealthiest Americans.

They would also depend on passage by Congress. That means that, to enact her agenda, Mrs. Clinton would need to find common ground with a destabilized Republican Party, whose unifying goal in Congress would be to discredit her.

Despite her political scars, she has shown an unusual capacity to reach across the aisle. When Mrs. Clinton was sworn in as a senator from New York in 2001, Republican leaders warned their caucus not to do anything that might make her look good. Yet as a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, she earned the respect of Republicans like Senator John McCain with her determination to master intricate military matters.

Her most lasting achievements as a senator include a federal fund for long­-term health monitoring of 9/11 first responders, an expansion of military benefits to cover reservists and the National Guard, and a law requiring drug companies to improve the safety of their medications for children.

Below the radar, she fought for money for farmers, hospitals, small businesses and environmental projects. Her vote in favor of the Iraq war is a black mark, but to her credit, she has explained her thinking rather than trying to rewrite that history.

As secretary of state, Mrs. Clinton was charged with repairing American credibility after eight years of the Bush administration’s unilateralism. She bears a share of the responsibility for the Obama administration’s foreign-­policy failings, notably in Libya. But her achievements are substantial. She led efforts to strengthen sanctions against Iran, which eventually pushed it to the table for talks over its nuclear program, and in 2012, she helped negotiate a cease­fire between Israel and Hamas.

Mrs. Clinton led efforts to renew diplomatic relations with Myanmar, persuading its junta to adopt political reforms. She helped promote the Trans­-Pacific Partnership, an important trade counterweight to China and a key component of the Obama administration’s pivot to Asia. Her election­-year reversal on that pact has confused some of her supporters, but her underlying commitment to bolstering trade along with workers’ rights is not in doubt.

Mrs. Clinton’s attempt to reset relations with Russia, though far from successful, was a sensible effort to improve interactions with a rivalrous nuclear power. Mrs. Clinton has shown herself to be a realist who believes America cannot simply withdraw behind oceans and walls, but must engage confidently in the world to protect its interests and be true to its values, which include helping others escape poverty and oppression

Mrs. Clinton’s husband, Bill Clinton, governed during what now looks like an optimistic and even gentle era. The end of the Cold War and the advance of technology and trade appeared to be awakening the world’s possibilities rather than its demons. Many in the news media, and in the country, and in that administration, were distracted by the scandal du jour — Mr. Clinton’s impeachment — during the very period in which a terrorist threat was growing. We are now living in a world darkened by the realization of that threat and its many consequences.

Mrs. Clinton’s service spans both eras, and she has learned hard lessons from the three presidents she has studied up close. She has also made her own share of mistakes. She has evinced a lamentable penchant for secrecy and made a poor decision to rely on a private email server while at the State Department. That decision deserved scrutiny, and it’s had it.

Now, considered alongside the real challenges that will occupy the next president, that email server, which has consumed so much of this campaign, looks like a matter for the help desk. And, viewed against those challenges, Mr. Trump shrinks to his true small-screen, reality-­show proportions, as we’ll argue in detail on Monday. Through war and recession, Americans born since 9/11 have had to grow up fast, and they deserve a grown­up president. A lifetime’s commitment to solving problems in the real world qualifies Hillary Clinton for this job, and the country should put her to work.


2016年7月29日 星期五

下一波高教海嘯成形:機器人時代

下一波高教海嘯成形:機器人時代

2016-07-29 03:33 聯合報 劉維公(東吳大學社會學系副教授)


在今年四月的時候,荷蘭阿姆斯特丹展出一幅「林布蘭」最新的人像畫油畫作品。林布蘭,被世人讚譽為荷蘭最偉大的畫家,是十七世紀的藝術家。在去世將近三百五十年之後的今天,怎麼可能會有他「新」的作品問世?

創作這幅畫的當然不是林布蘭本人,而是人工智慧。它是一項名為「下一個林布蘭」計畫的結晶。該計畫推動者是由美術館、保險、軟體、大學等組織所組成的團隊。團隊人員將林布蘭三四七幅作品輸入電腦之中,接著運用大數據分析方法,將其畫作分解成非常細的演算單位(亦即繪畫技巧),例如眼睛、頭髮等。由於具備精密的演算能力,什麼樣的創作題材都將難不倒電腦。

此次展出的中壯年男子人像畫,即是應用將近十七萬個演算單位,構成一幅高達近一點五億像素的作品。為了表現出畫布顏料的層次感,團隊特別採用3D列印技術,印出一幅有十四個層次的油畫。

機器人正在改變世界。從「下一個林布蘭」案例,我們清楚看到,甚至原本被認為是人類所獨特擁有的能力,也就是創造力,如今電腦機器也能夠做得到,儘管藝術家不一定苟同。

與機器人生活在一起,此一時代十年之內即將全面來臨。我們將會享受到機器人為人類所帶來的進步果實,包括醫療照顧、生活便利等。但,如果未做好充分準備,我們也將承擔其對社會發展所造成的嚴重衝擊。

就業機會的消失,正是其中一項極為嚴峻的威脅。為了讓人可以深刻感受此一威脅的嚴重性,我們用底下一個對比做說明:在一九九○年代,通用汽車相當風光,獲利可以達到一一○億美元,當時該公司僱用了八十四萬名員工;在今日,拉風的則是電動車製造公司特斯拉,新款Model 3開放預約前三天,全球即有超過廿七萬件訂單,其生產卻是僅靠一六○個機器人,每周組裝約四百輛汽車。

在過去,機器往往被認為只是「工具」,幫助勞動者提高生產力。如今,機器人就是「勞動者」。從藍領到白領,機器人將徹底轉化工作的性質,改寫專業的定義,以及重新分配就業機會。

長期以來,教育部一直認定少子化是危害高教生存的大海嘯。其實,真正的大海嘯,亦即機器人時代,才正在逼近中。少子化影響到各個學校的招生情形,而具有人工智慧的機器人衝擊到的是更根本的問題:大學存在的價值。

我們缺乏一個具有機器人時代意識的高等教育政策。面對與機器人競爭的挑戰,大學生能夠在學校學到未來職場上可以用到的一技之長嗎?如果大學制度與內容不改革,我們得到的一定是否定的答案。如果我們教育政策還是不斷糾纏在如何併校減校或世界排名,學位無用論將是我們不得不接受的墓誌銘。


(作者為東吳大學社會學系副教授)