No,
Robots Aren’t Killing the American Dream
By
THE EDITORIAL BOARD FEB. 20, 2017
Defenders
of globalization are on solid ground when they criticize President Trump’s
threats of punitive tariffs and border walls. The economy can’t flourish
without trade and immigrants. But many of those defenders have their own
dubious explanation for the economic disruption that helped to fuel the rise of
Mr. Trump.
At a
recent global forum in Dubai, Christine Lagarde, head of the International
Monetary Fund, said some of the economic pain ascribed to globalization was
instead due to the rise of robots taking jobs. In his farewell address in January,
President Barack Obama warned that “the next wave of economic dislocations
won’t come from overseas. It will come from the relentless pace of automation
that makes a lot of good middleclass jobs obsolete.”
Blaming
robots, though, while not as dangerous as protectionism and xenophobia, is also
a distraction from real problems and real solutions. The rise of modern robots
is the latest chapter in a centuries-old story of technology replacing people.
Automation is the hero of the story in good times and the villain in bad. Since
today’s middle class is in the midst of a prolonged period of wage stagnation,
it is especially vulnerable to blame-the-robot rhetoric. And yet, the data
indicate that today’s fear of robots is outpacing the actual advance of robots.
If automation were rapidly accelerating, labor productivity and capital
investment would also be surging as fewer workers and more technology did the
work. But labor productivity and capital investment have actually decelerated
in the 2000s. While breakthroughs could come at any time, the problem with
automation isn’t robots; it’s politicians, who have failed for decades to
support policies that let workers share the wealth from technology-led growth.
The
response in previous eras was quite different. When automation on the farm resulted
in the mass migration of Americans from rural to urban areas in the early
decades of the 20th century, agricultural states led the way in instituting
universal public high school education to prepare for the future. At the dawn
of the modern technological age at the end of World War II, the G.I. Bill
turned a generation of veterans into college graduates. When productivity led
to vast profits in America’s auto industry, unions ensured that pay rose
accordingly. Corporate efforts to keep profits high by keeping pay low were
countered by a robust federal minimum wage and time-and-a-half for overtime.
Fair taxation of corporations and the wealthy ensured the public a fair share
of profits from companies enriched by government investments in science and technology.
Productivity
and pay rose in tandem for decades after World War II, until labor and wage
protections began to be eroded. Public education has been given short shrift,
unions have been weakened, tax overhauls have benefited the rich and basic
labor standards have not been updated. As a result, gains from improving
technology have been concentrated at the top, damaging the middle class, while
politicians blame immigrants and robots for the misery that is due to their own
failures.
Eroded
policies need to be revived, and new ones enacted. A curb on stock buybacks
would help to ensure that executives could not enrich themselves as wages
lagged. Tax reform that increases revenue from corporations and the wealthy
could help pay for retraining and education to protect and prepare the work
force for foreseeable technological advancements. Legislation to foster child
care, elder care and fair scheduling would help employees keep up with changes
in the economy, rather than losing ground.
Economic
history shows that automation not only substitutes for human labor, it
complements it. The disappearance of some jobs and industries gives rise to
others. Nontechnology industries, from restaurants to personal fitness, benefit
from the consumer demand that results from rising incomes in a growing economy.
But only robust public policy can ensure that the benefits of growth are
broadly shared. If reforms are not enacted — as is likely with President Trump
and congressional Republicans in charge — Americans should blame policy makers,
not robots.
